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The weather outlook for Wednesday 23 October 2019

There is an acronym index at the bottom of the report for those not understanding some of the weather jargon. ;)

Good morning you amazing Wild2Fly people! Today a 180 degree change in direction with westerly winds dominating everywhere. A deep and active LP system to the south of us connecting a strong trough line down the centre of the country. There is however still the post frontal weather being fed onto the SW parts of the WC with NW winds, cloud and rain on the cards. In general some good soaring conditions around but for the strong winds it really could have been an awesome day. 10-20kts flow along the coast, strong parts over the mountain tops especially. Base between 2-3k along the west coast but rising quickly towards the east. Cloud tops around 7-10k. Winds remain westerly and increases steadily with a 115kts finish at the Tropopause.

CT – Chance of some rain around with the deeper cloud developments with NW winds 10-15kts. If the rain stays away it can be a good soaring day. Looks like base will drop a tad later in the day – 2k?

RB – WWB!

PV – Seems like it will be overcast with chances of rain – deep cloud developments with low base 2-3k and tops at 9k. Westerly winds around 10kts.

Wilderness – Strong west this morning backing to the SW and then S but later in the afternoon sees another increase veering to the WSW. Too strong this morning but a chance of a flyable window on the coast during the mid to early afternoon part. Watch for strong wind line moving in form the SW – there remains 20kts out there…

Plett – Similar to Wilderness in general. Keurbooms looks like a window in the afternoon as the wind moderates and backs to the south. Could be sweet. Uppies might be doable but it has a trend to hang around at the 15kts mark. Climbs in the afternoon to 3500’.

PE and PA strong SW over 25kts all day long.

Inland – Strong W to SW winds but with high base in a few spots. Up to 9k over parts of the Swartberg ranges. (Many spots showing good base making us drool for flying!) Looks fairly blue north of the Swartberg ranges with a more W to NW trend. South of the Swartberg there is a more SW surface flow. A storng day for flying so rather drink coffee. ;)

For Wilderness, sunrise is at 5:39 and setting at 18:49 (Day length 13 hours and 10 min). Low tide was at 5:19, high tide is at 11:42 and low again at 6:09. Max temps for the Wilderness area another windy 19 degrees C. Enjoy! :))

Wild2Fly weather report Acronym sheet


IOH – Indian Ocean High Pressure System
SAH – Southern Atlantic High Pressure system
B/S - Boyancy Shear ration
CT – Cape Town
CP – Cape Point
LR – Lapse Rate
LH – Lions Head
SH – Signal Hill
SLP – Sir Lowries Pass
FB – False Bay
RB - Rondebossie
PV – Porterville
CP – CarPark
BH – Beach Hotel
WC – Western Cape
PE – Port Elizabeth
PA – Port Alfred
W – West
OD - Over development
SW – South West
WSW – West South West etc
If I have missed anything let me know.

;) 

 

And yesterdays report for historical purposes...

 

(22 October 2019) Good morning you awesome Wild2Fly people! The IOH and inland trough dominating our WC weather. Today it is more a kitesurfing kind of day! ;)  It is strong SE along the southern parts and SW to W along the west coast. The air is sweet unstable with strong climbs in all areas – well over 500ft/min. The boundary layer between 5-8k AGL so a super good flying day out there if you can get to the right spot. Some Q’s along the southern areas but it will dissipate later on near the coast. A easterly trend in the east but west in the west. From 6k upwards it is all West winds with a 100kts finish at the Tropopause.

CT – The SE curling around CP area with more of a SW component around the northern parts of the Peninsula. Deep instability around midday with 6k climbs over parts of TM. The SH coastal area a tad more influenced by the marine air so more stable here. Early morning a sweet wind-shadow but then the SW will start to dominate around the promenade area. There’s a Southerly surface push that comes through later in the day just to keep things interesting.

RB – It looks like the wind remains west here all day…

PV – Looking exceptional for today with 6k climbs and westerly winds. Moring to mid-day around 5kts but then in the afternoon becoming breezy with 15kts on the cards.

Wilderness – A very strong SE on the table today so if you need to fly get out there early. Map is the place. There is a chance that by late morning it will be blown out. Probably more a hang gliding day. Some sweet Q’s inland but the SE coastal wind will make its way to the mountains during the day and start to break up those Q’s.

Plett – Similar to Wilderness… (Looks too strong all day)

PE and PA strong SE to East winds over 25kts later in the day.

Inland – The strong SE coastal flow blocked by the first mountains ranges giving us light winds inland. Mostly Easterly 5kts in the east but west in the west picking up towards the coast. In general from 6k upwards it is all westerly flows. The clouds confined to just past the Swartberg ranges where it will be sparse. A few along the Sutherland escarpment at 12k…

For Wilderness, sunrise is at 5:40 and setting at 18:49 (Day length 13 hours and 8 min). High tide was at 10:15, low tide is at 16:50. Max temps for the Wilderness area another windy 19 degrees C. Enjoy! :))



 

(21 Oct 2019) Good morning you amazing Wild2Fly people! So yesterday some good flying at PV, Gideon doing the crazy hang gliding thing at Sedgefield and well done to Grant for good strong wind soaring at the CarPark. :)) Today the post frontal air all over the show (The SAH pushing the stuff onto the WC) with very strong WSW winds along the southern parts and S along the west coast areas. Rain on and off – base between 3-5 with tops 8-10 at times. A slight slackening in the SW section of the WC later in the day. The wind is west at height with a 130kts finish at the Tropopause!

CT – Base around 3 with tops near 6/7k this morning but it will think out later in the day. Winds starting off SSW but later in the day going SE. It remains fairly storng all the way up to cloud tops so no signs of a usable wind-shadow today with the deep instability and winds.

RB – It looks like a fun day out here. Stronger in the afternoon.

PV – Very southerly surface component so not the best direction. But still deep instability with climbs to 6k. It doesn’t look like any clouds here though…

Wilderness – The strong WSW winds around all day by the looks of it. A nice looking sky at times in-between showers. Some OD’ing on the mountains at times. High base but with enough depth in the clouds for some precipitation. Probably more a hang gliding day.

Plett – Similar to Wilderness… (Looks too strong all day)

PE and PA stronger still those normal SW winds all day with 30kts plus at times.

Inland – Also strong SW winds up to the Middelburg escarpment where it goes more W to NW further north. Some good looking clouds north of the frst ranges with climbs to 7k over the Swartberg. It is a tad strong for flying though… ;)

For Wilderness, sunrise is at 5:41 and setting at 18:48 (Day length 13 hours and 6 min). High tide was at 8:33, low tide is at 14:55. Max temps for the Wilderness area a windy 18 degrees C. Enjoy!



(20 Oct 2019) Good morning
you awesome Wild2Fly people! What anamazing day at Map yesterday - the Wild2FLy students had a ball with mutliple top-landings - Mariska the star with her first Map soaring (and top lands too!) ;) Today SAH pushing in sweet unstable air onto the WC (A ligt CF - Coastal low passing during the night now making its way along the KZN coast). Some light rain in places along the coast but further inlnad  excellent soaring on the cards today. Some proper summer time thermals with climbs rates exceeding 500ft/min (Probably some 1000’/min cores!) Base around 4-5k along the coastal plains with sweet Q’s in most areas. Base increases the further inland we go with the second range mountains showing climbs to 7/9k! North of the Swartbergs the Q’s start to disappear. Winds are generally SW in direction with a veering to the W with height breezy at times with 20kts W to SW inland and along the coast.

CT – Low cloud initially but this should dissipate and rise up to 4k during the best oart of the day I think. S to SW winds 10-15kts decreasing with height. No inversion so no wind-shadow today. Perhaps the instability will pull the wind up straight on launch but there remains that SSW component along the SH area. Later in the day the base is lowering again to 2k.

RB – I think it will have too much West in it!

PV – An amazing day at PV today with high climbs and sweet Q’s. It is more West at height around 5kts with a 10kts SW on the surface. Later in the day the surface winds will trend more southerly and probably increase to 15kts in places. It’s a good day to go far I think!

Wilderness – The SW already blowing. It looks like a strong coastal morning with the moderating happening at midday. As soon as it does Sedge should become gentler (I think early on it will be very strong and gusty here!) Some good Q’s around too.

Plett – Similar to Wilderness with a upper west and SW lower down. Uppies showing initial climbs to 4k but very west. It is good but strong conditions out there so be careful.

PE and PA strong SW winds all day with 25kts plus at times.

Inland – Up the Swartberg its all SW winds up to 20kts and north of there it is more West with 20kts plus winds at times. Only for the very experienced pilots out there today… (For powered pilots too!)

For Wilderness, sunrise is at 5:43 and setting at 18:47 (Day length 13 hours and 4 min). High tide was at 7:16, low tide is at 13:15, and high tide again at 19:37. Max temps for the Wilderness area a lekker 19 degrees C. Enjoy!


And yesterdays report for historical purposes...

(Sat 19 Oct 2019) Good morning you amazing Wild2Fly people! A trough down the centre of the country with exceptional soaring conditions and very high base today from 15k to 17k in places. There’s a chance of CB activity around Joubertinia just after lunch (I suggest a Flash-flood alert for the Knysna to Plett area - all pending on which parts the rain happens). To the west the IOH dominating with a weak ridge along the south-coast – loads of moisture around with low cloud rising to perhaps 1500’ along the coastal regions with some spots clearing. There’s some mid/high level stratos clouds around. Winds along the southern areas all S to SE trends, curling more south around CP with a W to SW comnponent along the west coast. Its all west above the inversion from around 4k upwards with a 80kts finish at the Tropopause.

CT – Another wind-shadow day on the cards with the surface southerly capped by a strong inversion and a west flow from TM top height. It does pick up to 25kts over parts of FB. A layer of StratoQ’s around 14k for most of the day. Flying looks good all day to me.

RB – Another good day here – probably more late in the day...

PV – (my choice today) Looking sweet with 4k climbs and 5kts WSW winds. It gets much better into the Cederberg with climbs to 7k possible out there. That StratoQ layer at 14k very evident effecting the surface heating.

Wilderness – Low cloud this morning which should rise to around 1000’ later on. Winds are all S to SE with maybe 7kts at Map at its peak. After 14/15:00 it starts to drop in the Wilderness corner. Buffs a good pick and also Gerrickes point with a bench-up at the CP very doable today. Maybe up to 15kts at Buffs.

Plett – Those low clouds still around from all low level ocean moisture – Uppies showing a SSE trend with base at 2/2500’. Its all SE winds with the NW appearing above the 4/5k mark. Weak climbs with all the cloud around. And the chance of that CB activity towards Joubertinia could influence things too in your area. Today its worth going to Beervlei dam rather!

PE and PA also with that S to SE trend up to 15kts so a relatively light wind day here too.

Inland – Up the Swartberg its all light southerly winds but North from here we get into the big sky region – Climbs to 15/16k on the cards with the NW winds (probably a record day out there!). Most of the low clouds blocked by the coastal mountain ranges but far to the north look out for those flat and high Q’s to wet the appetite!

For Wilderness, sunrise is at 5:44 and setting at 18:46 (Day length 13 hours and 2 min). High tide was at 6:22, low tide is at 12:15, and high tide again at 18:35. Max temps for the Wilderness area a lekker 21 degrees C. Enjoy! :))



And yesterdays report for historical purposes...


(Friday 18 October 2019) Good morning you amazing Wild2Fly people! A weak SAH ridge along the southern parts with a light SE trend along the western GR areas. There is still the inflow of moisture form the North in the mid-levels so the chance of CB activity still around inland around mid-day. The IOH dominating in the far east. A sweet slack wind area in-between the two HP systems that will move slightly to the east along the GR coast. Less rain in the cards from yesterday prediction so the day is actually looking up! J A decent unstable layer along the southern parts with climbs to 4-5k and some Q’s to help it looks more appetising. Along the west the boundary layer a tad lower with 2-3k AGL. The wind is W above the inversion starting off light around 5kts with a steady increase to 40kts NW at the Tropopause.

CT – Looks like another wind-shadow day but perhaps slightly less affective to yesterday. Shallow inversion around 1k. Some signs of more of a SW along the shore front – some 15kts spots out to sea but should be flyable all day.

RB – Another good day here...

PV – Sweet WSW winds around 5kts with climbs to MT top height.

Wilderness – A light SW start with some clouds around. The forecast is looking pretty sweet actually with the slack area passing us and the winds gently trending to the S and then later in the day SE. Sweet instability at Sedge with climbs at 11 up to cloud at 1500’. It should work there all day by the looks of it. Looks too light for anything along the coast…

Plett – Lookiing really good at Uppies with climbs at 11 to 3500’ with a SW trend then going to the S and SE later in the day. Climbs at Uppies lowering a tad to 2500’. Time to fly to the west I think. Keurbooms could work early at 10 already for a while before the winds back too much.

PE and PA with SW start but PE going South later in the day at 10kts. PA remaining SW 15kts.

Inland – A light S to SE in the south with the NW north of the Swartberg ranges. Loads of high clouds around and storng surface winds will reach around 20kts and deeper instability with high base at 14-15k. A strong chance of CB activity here.

For Wilderness, sunrise is at 5:45 and setting at 18:45 (Day length 13 hours). High tide was at 5:41, low tide is at 11:33, and high tide again at 17:51. Max temps for the Wilderness area another sweet 21 degrees C. Enjoy! :))

And yesterdays report for historical purposes...

Good morning you awesome Wild2Fly people! The SAH dominating in the west (west winds) while the IOH is doing its thing in the east (NE winds). In between it looks like a fast moving coastal low along the Southern parts bringing the associated changes. Still loads of moisture from the IOH with lots of low cloud around the southern coast but some parts should dissipate during the course of the morning. A trough down the central western parts with some CB activity for the afternoon on the cards – strong NW winds out there. Big varying boundary layer with stable coastal parts of less than 1000’ and deeper inland – up to 15k. The coastal plains around the 2-3k level. From 5k the winds are all NW and breezy with 20-30kts from here and a 40kts NW finish at the Tropopause.

CT – Looks like another good wind-shadow day with a southerly surface flow and strong inversion around 1000’ deepening in the afternoon. Winds are 15kts S on the surface but dropping sharply with height as it backs to the NE and then abruptly going west. Looks good all day to me.

RB – Another possible teasing day...

PV – Looks like a sweet day here with light westerly winds and going SW in the afternoon. Perhaps touching 10kts. Climbs to just above the MT tops – 3500’ probably. Above the inversion it is NW. Lots of high thick cirrus around.

Wilderness – Coastal mist this morning which should clear quickly as one moves inland during the course of the morning. Probably a nice clearing window at Sedge. That Westerly pulse still pushing through from early to mid-day but it has weakened somewhat for Wilderness region – 10-15kts at the strongest it seems. But after lunch it moderates backing more to the South, so the afternoon is looking promising for Sedge – one forecast indicating climbs to 1200/1500’ with some Q’s. The wnd is more west with height so there is some negative forecast on the B/S ration (Could be a tad bumpy according to RASP). With some luck some of the coastal cliffs could offer something though with the misty stuff it usually doesn’t.

Plett – That WSW sticking here for a bit longer but mid afternoon things are looking promising. Even Keurbooms seems like it might work as the wind backs a tad more in the late afternoon. Uppies showing climbs to 2500’ – perhaps tad too west in it with height – lowering later in the day to 2k.

PE and PA with a NE start but the WSW pulse moving up quickly at 20kts plus. At lunchtime PE should have a strong SW with PA a strong NE. But by 17:00 its SW at PA too up to 30kts.

Inland – A light west start in the southern parts but NW flow North of the Swartberg. In the afternoon the NW dominates with 20kts plus spots in many places and a strong chance of CB activity, especially in the Western parts. The strong winds do not make for a good flying day…

For Wilderness, sunrise is at 5:46 and setting at 18:44 (Day length 12 hours and 58 min). High tide was at 5:07, low tide is at 10:59, and high tide again at 17:15. Max temps for the Wilderness area another sweet 22 degrees C. Enjoy! :))


And yesterdays report for historical purposes...


(16 October 2019) Good morning
you amazing Wild2Fly people! Before Typhoon Hagibis fades from the maps, some interesting stats - it is officially the second largest Typhoon in recorded history at 1400km in diameter. (It will cover the entire WC!). No extreme weather for today. We have a trough along the western parts of the country with a weak SAH ridge along the SW WC. During the course of the day this ridge will start to dominate a tad more along the coastal regions. Looks like a blue day with a few early morning StratoQ’s along the GR. The boundary layer around 2-3k thick along the coastal plains with a SE trend, similar depth north of the first big ranges with a light and variable surface flow but near and ontop of the Sutherland/Middelburg escarpment it is 12k climbs with NW winds. At 3-5k AGL the winds trend NW everywhere with a 50kts W finish at the Tropopause over CT but 30kts East north of Middelburg. ;)

CT – A beautiful wind-shadow day on the cards here with a southerly surface flow and strong inversion around 1000’ – less later on – and a 5kts NE to NW wind at TM top height.

RB – Inverted day with teasingly SE winds that might become soarable with a bit of luck – especially later in the afternoon.

PV – SW surface flows up to launch height – the inversion right about here today with the winds going NW above that. Not the best day but probably flyable along the range…

Wilderness – The IOH bringing in stable marine air around our area today with a light SE trend. There's some stratoQ's around this moring but it is forecasted to burn off quickly. Sedge might be doable early on with climbs to 6-700’. But becoming more stable later in the day. It might be playable along parts of the ocean cliffs, Buffs come to mind (Knysna has 15kts spots of SE wind) and with some luck Gerrickes. Map probably offering some extended foefies later on.

Plett – Once again the SE appearing a tad earlier here with Uppies showing climbs to 2000’ with a bit of luck. More lickely 1500’ for most of the day. Probably around 10knts SE winds in general.

PE and PA with a East start around 10-15kts but later in the day going up 25kts ENE winds.

Inland – Once again light and variable winds with a W to NW trend with height. 2k AGL convection depth on average – some climbs to 6/7k above the Swartberg with light NW winds up there. Around the Outenikwas its N at 5kts with the SE penetrating in the afternoon with N at 5k at 5kts. Looks like a sweet day for powered flying.

For Wilderness, sunrise is at 5:47 and setting at 18:44 (Day length 12 hours and 56 min). Low tide is at 10:29, high tide is at 16:44. Max temps for the Wilderness area a sweet 22 degrees C. Enjoy! :))


Previous reports for historical purposes...

(15 Oct 2019) Good morning you awesome Wild2Fly people! :)) A sweet HP settling in over the WC region with the SAH shaping up a weak ridge along the southern and SW parts. Quite a bit of subsidence around with the inversion lowering but still some good flying to be had – the boundary layer around 1- 4k AGL. No clouds (perhaps a few spots of fog around the west coast). Even up at BW and Middelburg climbs restricted to 4k AGL. And winds are fairly light all over the show with the strongest bits along the coast reaching 15kts (maybe!) over the sea at SH. Winds are SE along the south coast with a S to SW variation up the west coast. At 6k it is west with 20kts from 10k upwards and a 50kts SW finish at the Tropopause.

CT – Light winds for most of the day with a surface southerly that will only pick-up late afternoon. For the most part it is a SW that flows around the Peninsula along the surface. A cool convergence line from south of the city out to Stellies setting up again (If only we could fly there!) Above the inversion (around 2k) the winds are NE to West. In general it looks pretty good all day.

RB – A weak day but it does like a chance of the Southerly pushing through to here late in the day for some soaring.

PV – SSW winds around 5kts with the inversion at 3k. It is light east above launch. Not the best of days but perhaps the instability  will provide enough upslope flow for some flying to happen. Its better in the Cederbergs once again.

Wilderness – Light winds all day with a chance of the SE picking up to over 10kts in the late afternoon. Looks like a Sedge start and then a move to Wilderness later in the day. Winds will start South but back to SE during the day.

Plett – The SE appearing a tad earlier here with Uppies showing climbs to 2500’. Looks like 10kts so probably worth a visit.

PE and PA with light southerly winds up to 10kts – so time to visit all those secret spots!

Inland – Light and variable winds with a S to SE trend all day. It picks up to 10kts in the afternoon but remains light with height. In the far south it picks up to westerly with a 20kts over the Outenikwas at 10k. Climbs to 7k expected over the Swartbergs and Kamanasie ranges. 4-5k in some spots along the south of the Outenikwa’s. A sweet day for flying out there today! :)

For Wilderness, sunrise is at 5:49 and setting at 18:43 (Day length 12 hours and 54 min). Low tide is at 10:02, high tide is at 16:16. Max temps for the Wilderness area around 21 degrees C. Enjoy! :))


Previous reports for historical purposes...

(14 Oct 2019) Good morning you amazing Wild2Fly people! Today a CF approaching CT pushed along by the SAH, there’s a Trough inland with the IOH dominating along the eastern parts. All of these systems are moving to the east bringing along the associated changes for the day. (Some light rain by midnight and early hours of tomorrow morning along parts of the GR). Some Q's around the SW parts of the WC. There is a warning out today with a strong SW pulse moving up the coast with 25kts plus in places. The boundary layer around 1-4k along the coastal ranges but a few inland spots going higher with 6-7k AGL spots but Koffiefontein regions up to 17k due to the active trough-line. Along the coast the general pattern is Westerly with some NW to SW variations. 50kts WNW from 6/7k upwards with a 80-100kts at the Tropopause

CT – Some low cloud around this morning which should clear with base at 2500/3000’. Winds are all Westerly with a touch of SW 10-15kts. It does get stronger later in the afternoon so just keep an eye on things. 20kts plus at TM top height. Instability up to 4k during the best part of the day. SLP probably too strong.

RB – Wrong wind direction here today.

PV – Looks like the best place for the morning with climbs up to 4k and W winds 5-10kts. But from mid-afternoon the winds pick up to 20kts in places west so being pushed over the back a real possibility so be careful.

Wilderness – With the changes going on from the IOH to SAH dominance we will experience a light morning with an initial sweet SW as early as 9/9:30 with some good soaring for an hour or so. It is then scheduled to drop as the approaching SW moves closer. Light winds around lunchtime but mid-afternoon sees the wind more west and picking up. The SW should make its appearance from 15/16:00 onwards. So fly early if you can. Sedge probably offering some thermic stuff with climbs to 1000’ or so. The flow has some west in it so the B/S ration showing quite a bit of mixing, worsening after mid-day. Some Q’s popping up also to brighten the show.

Plett – Also a light start but the SW appearing a bit earlier so keep a good look-out. Uppies showing climbs to 2-2500’ with a strong WSW component. So the prefrontal stuff not the best for today. Strong just after lunch.

PE and PA super strong NE this morning at 30kts but the SW moving in late afternoon also around 30kts!

Inland – It’s a westerly flow everywhere – all the way up to Uppington with 20kts in places. Increasing with height and 30kts around 7k. Stronger towards the south with 50kts over the Outenikwas at 10k WNW. Not the best day to be flying out there…

For Wilderness, sunrise is at 5:50 and setting at 18:42 (Day length 12 hours and 52 min). Low tide is at 9:35, high tide is at 15:49. Max temps for the Wilderness area a touch warmer than yesterday a warm 22 degrees C. Enjoy! :))

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